Lucia Muticani
WASHINGTON (Reuters) – Orders for long-term use products made in the United States fell in January for the first time in nearly four years, but corporate capital spending appears to have slowed, a sign that the economy lost momentum at the start of the year. There is.
Concerns about the economic outlook, particularly the labor market and the upcoming presidential election, were top of mind for consumers in February, resulting in a decline in confidence after three consecutive months of gains. The decline in confidence reported by the Conference Board on Tuesday came even as inflation expectations for the next 12 months fell to an almost four-year low.
These reports join a series of weaker data including retail sales, housing starts and manufacturing production. Part of the weakness was blamed on subzero temperatures last month, as well as difficulties adjusting the data for seasonal fluctuations at the beginning of the year. Nevertheless, economists do not expect a recession to occur this year.
“Business capital spending creates the seeds for future economic growth,” said Christopher Rapkey, chief economist at FWDBONDS in New York. It will become so.” “While economists are backtracking on their recession warnings, business leaders who are on the fence are less certain about the economy’s future.”
Orders for durable goods ranging from toasters to aircraft that last more than three years fell 6.1% last month, according to the Commerce Department’s Census Bureau, as bookings for commercial aircraft fell sharply. This was the biggest decline since April 2020, when the economy was reeling from the first wave of coronavirus infections.
Data for December has been revised downward to show that orders are down 0.3%, rather than unchanged from the previous report.
Economists polled by Reuters had predicted a 4.5% decline in durable goods orders. Orders in January decreased by 0.8% compared to the same month last year.
Orders for commercial aircraft plunged 58.9% last month after increasing 1.0% in December. Boeing reported on its website that it received orders for just three commercial aircraft in January, down from 371 in December.
Aircraft manufacturers are under pressure after a cabin panel exploded mid-air on an Alaska Airlines jet in early January. Last month, the Federal Aviation Administration banned Boeing from expanding production of its best-selling 737 MAX narrowbody jet in an effort to improve quality control.
Overall transportation orders fell 16.2% last month, after falling 0.6% in December. Orders for automobiles and parts decreased by 0.4%. Durable goods orders, excluding transportation, fell 0.3% last month after falling 0.1% in December.
Orders for primary metals and processed metals decreased. Machinery orders remain unchanged. However, orders for computers and electronic products increased by 1.4%, and orders for electrical equipment, home appliances and parts increased by 0.9%.
There are signs that the manufacturing sector, which accounts for 10.3% of the U.S. economy, is stabilizing after production eased in 2023 following a 525 basis point interest rate hike by the Federal Reserve starting in March 2022. Full recovery is still far away. . The U.S. central bank is expected to start cutting interest rates this year, but policymakers say they see no rush to lower borrowing costs.
Stock prices on Wall Street were falling. The dollar was little changed against a basket of currencies. US bond yields rose.
Decline in consumer confidence
Orders for non-defense capital goods, excluding aircraft, which are closely watched as an indicator of corporate spending plans, rose 0.1% in January, after a revised 0.6% decline in the previous month.
These so-called core capital goods orders were previously reported to have increased by 0.2% in December. Core capital goods shipments increased 0.8%, following a 0.1% increase in December.
Orders for non-defense capital goods plunged 19.4% and shipments fell 3.0%, the biggest decline since November 2020, following a 1.0% decline in December. Shipments of these goods are included in the calculation of business expenditures for the equipment component of the gross domestic product report.
“This marks a significantly slower start to office equipment spending in the first quarter, following a modest increase in the previous quarter,” said Priscilla Thiagamoorthy, senior economist at BMO Capital Markets in Toronto. Ta.
Business capital investment contracted in the July-September period, but recovered slightly in the fourth quarter. The economy grew at an annual rate of 3.3% last quarter, after expanding at a 4.9% pace in the third quarter.
Although the labor market remains resilient despite rising borrowing costs, consumer assessments of the job market are becoming less optimistic and confidence in the economy is eroding.
According to the Conference Board’s second report, the consumer confidence index fell to 106.7 from January’s downwardly revised 110.9.
Economists had expected the index to reach 115.0, little changed from the previously announced 114.8.
The Conference Board said that while consumers remain concerned about inflation, write-in responses indicated that they were “a little less concerned about food and gasoline prices,” and that they were “less concerned about labor market conditions and the U.S. “I’m more concerned about the political environment.”
The survey’s so-called labor market gap, derived from data on respondents’ views on whether jobs are plentiful or hard to get, narrowed to 27.8 from 31.7 in January. This indicator correlates with the unemployment rate, an employment report closely followed by the Department of Labor.
Consumers’ perceptions of the labor market may have been colored by the recent wave of high-profile layoffs.
Overall, the labor market remains fairly tight, with weekly new claims for unemployment benefits at historically low levels. With the labor market strong and inflation still high, financial markets are pushing back expectations for a rate cut from May to June.
Although consumers’ views on the labor market have softened somewhat, many still expect to buy a car and big-ticket items such as clothes dryers and refrigerators within the next six months. Consumers expect price pressures to ease over the next 12 months, with inflation expectations falling to 5.2% from 5.3% in January, the lowest level since March 2020.
Rising prices and rising mortgage rates have squeezed aspiring homeowners, with the proportion planning to buy a home at the lowest level since November 2020.
According to the Federal Housing Finance Agency’s third report, home prices rose 0.1% in December, following a 0.4% increase in November. After rising 6.7% in November, the year-on-year increase was 6.6%. Slower house price growth is welcome, especially from the perspective of rental inflation, which is a major driver of overall inflation.
“The pace of home price growth is consistent with a slowdown in owner-equivalent rent inflation this year,” said Michael Pearce, deputy chief U.S. economist at Oxford Economics in New York.
(Reporting by Lucia Muticani; Editing by Chizu Nomiyama and Andrea Ricci)
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